| Pages in topic: < [1 2 3 4] > | AI to hit 40% of jobs and worsen inequality, IMF says Thread poster: Peter Motte
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| People miss one thing... | Jan 15 |
Inge Schumacher wrote:
It's clear that AI is going to be a real threat for workers. I think nowadays it's better to be a skilled manual worker/craftsman rather than an "intellectual".
[Bearbeitet am 2024-01-15 13:54 GMT]
[Bearbeitet am 2024-01-15 16:42 GMT]
Capitalism is the art of doing more with less to generate ever-increasing profits.
It doesn't matter if AI is as good as translators in everything.
All it matters is that it generates cheap translations that can be somewhat intelligible for nearly free.
So, if companies find a way to pay translators less, or not at all, they absolutely will do so.
And this obviously doesn't affect just translators, but every conceivable industry AI touches.
| | | | Tom in London
United Kingdom
Local time: 11:03
Member (2008)
Italian to English
Carlos A R de Souza wrote:
All it matters is that it generates cheap translations that can be somewhat intelligible for nearly free.
Not if it's their website, their technical manuals, or other key documents that could negatively affect their public image/brand. For those purposes, only the best translations will do.
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Tom in London wrote:
Not if it's their website, their technical manuals, or other key documents that could negatively affect their public image/brand. For those purposes, only the best translations will do.
That's what we all like to tell the world, and ourselves. But we all also know that it's rarely true.
| | | | Tom in London
United Kingdom
Local time: 11:03
Member (2008)
Italian to English
Christopher Schröder wrote: Tom in London wrote:
Not if it's their website, their technical manuals, or other key documents that could negatively affect their public image/brand. For those purposes, only the best translations will do. That's what we all like to tell the world, and ourselves. But we all also know that it's rarely true.
Rare enough to keep me going.
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Dan Lucas 
United Kingdom
Local time: 11:03
Member (2014)
Japanese to English
| Why should it be anything other than "rarely"? | Jan 16 |
Christopher Schröder wrote:
But we all also know that it's rarely true.
I reckon that many people (particularly generalists in very competitive language pairs) have found over the past few years that the "high end" in which they thought they did business was actually the mid-range, and vulnerable to encroachment from MT.
Maybe the vast majority of us are, as you kind of imply, in the middle of the market. Still, in almost every market, the high end accounts for a small fraction of the total and as such is not easy to find. I see no reason to believe that this is not the case in translation so, yes, "rarely" is the right word but "rare" is not a synonym for "doesn't exist".
Maybe even the high end will disappear, and the nature of the work being done even there is likely to change. I try to be phlegmatic about the prospect of my work disappearing, based on past experience of hyperbole and exaggeration in the media and elsewhere, but if my time comes then I wonder if I will be as sanguine as I like to think...
Dan
| | | | Lieven Malaise
Belgium
Local time: 12:03
Member (2020)
French to Dutch
+ ...
Technical manuals have always been a notorious field of terrible translation work, so it seems a little naive to think quality is of the utmost importance. On top of that: as someone who has translated numerous manuals in the past decades and still does, I can guarantee you that MT is an aid, not an obstacle for technical translations.
| | | | Chris Spurgin
United Kingdom
Local time: 11:03
Member (2016)
Russian to English
+ ...
| If the IMF say something, usually best to ignore it | Jan 16 |
The IMF are not a reliable source of predictions.
People are just pulling percentages out of their heads. Nobody knows how AI will affect things.
| | | | Neirda
China
Local time: 18:03
Chinese to French
+ ...
| Useless transnational body pushing "policy makers" to coerce cool thing | Jan 16 |
that's a new one.
Unrelated topic, what do you think of tractors completely replacing the human workforce on the wheat fields? We can't keep having this, what about all those jobless peasants. Or something.
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Neirda wrote:
Unrelated topic, what do you think of tractors completely replacing the human workforce on the wheat fields? We can't keep having this, what about all those jobless peasants. Or something.
The trouble is that, like the peasants who didn't then get to drive the tractor, most translators aren't personally or professionally qualified to do anything else that pays remotely near what they currently earn.
To be fair to the IMF, someone has to do that kind of guesswork. I happen to make most of my living from translating that guesswork. For now.
| | | | Peter Motte
Belgium
Local time: 12:03
Member (2009)
English to Dutch
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER
Tom in London wrote:
Q. Is AI going to kill off the translating profession?
A. AI and machine translations have indeed advanced significantly in recent years, and they are increasingly capable of providing accurate translations in many languages. However, it's important to note that while AI can be a valuable tool for translation, it is unlikely to completely replace human translators.
I completeley agree on that "unlikely to completely replace human translators".
Question is how much of the current translation work AI will leave to us.
50%? 25%? 10%?
Even if it's 50%, that means half of the translators are out of work, or lots of us are left with a serious decrease of work load.
I also agree that translation by computers and AI have been gradually improving for decades, but I have the impression that ChatGPT was a wake-up call for lots of (potential) clients, and that lots of them just don't contact the translation professionals anymore.
But what's really annoying are all of those people who are working at translation schools and institutes who will never admit there is a crisis looming. That kind of people always put up a happy face, because "you should not demotivate pupils", or "you should not frighten potential clients", or "you should give the impression you're doing great because otherwise they might think you're not good at your job".
But those schools and institutes need pupils to get money. And a translators' association wants to look succesful to draw new members. And even compagnies and - yes - freelancers just want to look succesful to secure their business.
And although I can understand that from a business perspective, it becomes a dangerous lie if translation schools, translation educational institutions and translation associations start to do that, because they draw in newbies for an insecure future.
And that's criminal.
[Edited at 2024-01-16 13:20 GMT]
| | | | Peter Motte
Belgium
Local time: 12:03
Member (2009)
English to Dutch
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER
Inge Schumacher wrote:
I already work quite a lot on AI training (mainly LQA), and even if there is still a long way to go before LLM (LargeLanguageModels) become (almost) perfect, it's coming.
You're working to make yourself become obsolete?
| | | | Peter Motte
Belgium
Local time: 12:03
Member (2009)
English to Dutch
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER
Inge Schumacher wrote:
Tom said: I've saved you all a lot of time. I asked ChatGPT to deal with this.
Tom,
If you read my comment a bit more carefully, you would see that I'm not saying that human translators have NO FUTURE in the world of AI!
But our role is going to change, that's obvious.
See: blind spot:"But our role is going to change" should read "But our role is going to diminish"
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Peter Motte
Belgium
Local time: 12:03
Member (2009)
English to Dutch
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER
Michele Fauble wrote: “In the decades to come, 2023 may be remembered as the year of generative AI hype, where ChatGPT became arguably the fastest-spreading new technology in human history and expectations of AI-powered riches became commonplace. The year 2024 will be the time for recalibrating expectations.” https://www.wired.com/story/get-ready-for-the-great-ai-disappointment/
I hope that's true, but
- losing 1 year of income is a lot
- I'm not sure it will turn out that way. AI won't indeed replace is completely, but "not completely" does not mean "not at all".
| | | | Neirda
China
Local time: 18:03
Chinese to French
+ ...
| How about switchboard operators, we should've regulated roaming | Jan 16 |
Christopher Schröder wrote:
The trouble is that, like the peasants who didn't then get to drive the tractor, most translators aren't personally or professionally qualified to do anything else that pays remotely near what they currently earn.
Yet less people are starving today than then, go figure. You do know I could go on all day with any invention back to the wheel, right?
To be fair to the IMF, someone has to do that kind of guesswork.
I'd survive without.
| | | | Dan Lucas
United Kingdom
Local time: 11:03
Member (2014)
Japanese to English
Peter Motte wrote:
it becomes a dangerous lie if translation schools, translation educational institutions and translation associations start to do that, because they draw in newbies for an insecure future.
I don't think there are any professions in which a secure future can be assured, to be blunt. That is not what life is about. The world hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light / Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain.
One of the things that strikes me when I look at forums with a heavy representation from people working in other professions, such as web design, or law, or accountancy, is that they too are concerned about artificial intelligence. As one of our more provocative forum members once said, show me the industry immune to the march of technology. There are none.
To me (a) the breadth of this feeling suggests to me that there is a nascent consensus and (b) the depth of feeling suggests that this consensus is overblown. Contrary to what you might think, vast numbers of people fervently believing or fearing something doesn't make it true or likely to happen. I suspect the truth is closer to the argument put in the Wired article referenced earlier in the thread than to the doom and gloom of which we see so much. That is, AI has been overhyped and will underdeliver.
As for your comment about educational institutions and so on - no, it is not a crime to sell translation courses to those wishing to take them. I think you'll find that such institutions are very careful not to make promises about the future. Should people take such courses? That is up to them, and if they don't do their due diligence then they only have themselves to blame.
Certainly, I have never been tempted by the thought of an MA in translation, even though such courses have their adherents on this forum. Who is right? I don't know. There are many routes to success, and even more routes to failure.
Dan
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